NEW DATA: XAVIER BECERRA DROPPING OUT OF GOV RACE SHRINKS ODDS OF TOP TWO REPUBLICAN SCENARIO TO 8%
Paul Mitchell’sTop Two Simulator: Odds Drop from 27.6% to 8% if Becerra Drops Out of Governor’s Race
LOS ANGELES, CA — Today the Antonio Villaraigosa for Governor campaign released the new data in the governor’s race in response to the CA Dem Party letter.
According to data guru Paul Mitchell’s “Top Two Twins Primary Simulator,” the best way to avoid Republicans taking the top two spots in the runoff is for Xavier Becerra to drop out of the Governor’s race and withdraw his name from the ballot
According to Micthell’s Primary Simulator if Becerra drops out, the odds of two Republicans in the Top Two drop to only 8%
According to Micthell’s Simulator, if Becerra stays in the race, the odds of Republicans in the Top Two jump nearly twenty points to 27.6%
See results below.
New IVP Poll demonstrates key weakness and major vulnerability for Becerra, highlighting “a U.S. Attorney investigation involving a former Becerra staffer”
Becerra’s lackluster fundraising – coupled with significant vulnerabilities – demonstrates no viable path to victory
49.5% of Becerra’s funding was transferred from two dormant political committees
$1.3 million from the committee at the center of the scandal involving payments to Becerra’s chief of staff
$1.2 million from dormant Congressional committee
Unlike 2018, Xavier Becerra neglected to file a candidate statement in the CA Gov, a key sign that he is considering dropping out of the race. See list of statements here, without Becerra’s statement: https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/public-display/governor.pdf
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